Intro to understanding a surf forecast — Isla Surf School (2024)

Almost everything about surfing is intimidating. Communities seem too tight knit to become a part of, certain boards seem way too difficult to ride, some waves look too scary to ride, and deciphering a surf forecast seems reserved for wicked smart folks. But the more time you spend immersing yourself in surfing and the ocean, the more you realize it isn’t that scary. This may be the longest guide we have written, but we hope you find it helpful.

Today we will breakdown a daily surf forecast for Folly Beach. This is the desktop version of Surfline. This is just an intro, but it will be a great foundation to understand what is happening day to day surf wise in the Charleston area. If you do not have a Surfline Premium account, Magicseaweed or Swellinfo could be good options and we can always do a intro to those platforms as well. Let’s jump in!

First, find Folly Beach on the site and click “Regional Forecast”. You will see the display we have below. This will give you a fairly accurate macro view for the next 3-7 days. Depending on the system generating the waves, everything is subject to some pretty big changes and nothing is set in stone. We tend to look at the 5 day forecast for Folly Beach and base our lesson schedule around that. Once you have an idea of what the week ahead holds, you can hone in on a day or two that interests you.

We want to look at 9/20. The first thing you will see is a colored rating bar for “AM” and “PM”. In this case Surfline is calling for “Fair” conditions for both halves of the day. What does “Fair” mean? Surfline uses a colored rating system from the worst, “Very Poor” (gray) ,to “Epic” (red), as good as it gets. In between the worst and the best a beach can get are five other ratings. Because we live in Charleston, we primarily see “Poor” and “Poor to Fair” conditions. We do have our share of “Fair” days as well, but “Fair to Good” and “Good” are quite rare and “Epic” is very very rare and would require all conditions from a Hurricane coming together for Folly Beach for that to be warranted. We recommend looking out for “Poor too Fair” and “Fair” days. That is the bulk of fun surfing days you will have in the Charleston area.

So below our AM and PM rating we will have wave size in both feet and height in comparison to a human body. The measuring of waves will forever be one of the funnier parts of surfing. Two people will describe the same morning of waves as thigh high and six foot. People tend to exaggerate and we find it’s better to downplay size. No one likes to hear its head high only to find out its stomach at best. You’ll have to make your own judgment, but a 2-3 or thigh to waist high day is a super fun day for Folly. 1-2 feet is totally surfable and fun, but thigh to waist is the bread and butter for the majority of surfers and very user friendly in our region.

Below the wave height we will have a brief description from Surfline’s southeast regional forecaster giving us the rundown of what is to be expected. While this may be all you need to make the call on skipping work or telling the family it’s a beach day, you would be best served by continuing to sift through the information below to have a better understanding of what the day will hold.

Now that we’ve covered the basic description of what the waves and wind are expected to do on Tuesday, let’s take a deeper look into the swell, wind, and tide and their respective directions and speeds.

First up, the swell. There’s no surfing without the swell so that’s always our most important ingredient. You will see a section with the time displayed from 12am to 12am. The white or lighter part of the display represents the hours in the day we can surf due to light. Within this display we have one clear orange line with arrows on it. Other than that we have random arrows with varying sizes and direction. What does all this mean? At first glance how are you supposed to get any info from this. Each line of arrows or in this case random one off arrows represents different underlying swells. Wait, there’s more than one swell per day? Yes, you will more than likely always have multiple swells on any given day; however, we are looking for the most dominant and organized. In this case, that is the orange line with arrows. Due to how disorganized and random the other swells are, they are not really relevant in this case. If there were other more organized swell lines than we may have a “combo swell” situation where we have several different swells that could combine to create potential very fun conditions on our beaches, but for Tuesday we only need to focus on the one dominate swell.

Take your mouse and hover it over the orange line. By doing this you will be able to see a small map clearly showing the direction of the swell. We can see it’s pointed towards our coastline. This is good because it means our beaches will pick it up. What if the orange arrow was parallel with our coastline? This would mean our beaches would miss most of the swell and it would head straight to North Florida. This would not be good. You can see it says 2.4ft at 9s. 2.4ft is the swell height and the 9s means “9 seconds” which is the period/interval or the distance between waves. This data will come from a network of buoys off the South Carolina coastline that are reading ocean conditions. The lower the number of seconds the period is the weaker and more disorganized the swell and waves will be when they break on Folly. The higher the number of seconds the period is the more organized and stronger the swell will be. But be careful, would 22 seconds be good? Absolutely not, it would be way too powerful for our beach breaks and would result in closeouts or waves that are not rideable. For these longer period swell events you would need some sort of structure. By that we mean a reef, a point, or even an inlet or a jetty to break the swell up. For our Folly Beach case study, we would say that anything from 7 seconds to 11 seconds is our sweet spot. Below our wave height and period we have SE 125 Degrees. This is telling us that the swell is coming from the southeast which we can see from our orange arrow on the map. This specific south east swell direction would directly correlate with 125 degrees on the map. Don’t get too hung up on the degrees, just worry about the direction in terms of north, south, and east, and west. For Folly Beach we ideally want a swell from the SE, but straight south works, east works, and even though N and NE swell is not ideal for the direction our beaches face, if it is a big enough swell from a No’easter for example we will still get some waves, but it will be drifty and will lack the shape we want.

Up next in our list of ingredients is wind. While swell is the obvious starting point, the wind can really make or break your day. A perfect swell means nothing if your winds are horrendous. What do we mean by horrendous? Well, you basically have two variables. Wind speed and wind direction. If you have a bad wind direction (onshore or cross shore) it may not be ideal, but as long as the wind speeds are low, you’ll be just fine. However, if you have cross shore or onshore winds at a high speed of let say 15-20 mph, it will drastically decrease the quality of the waves even if the swell size, period, and direction are perfect. We need the wind and swell to cooperate to have a really good day come together. So below you will see the same display we had for the swell; however, for the wind we have individual arrows with varying sizes and directions. The smaller the arrow the lighter the wind and the direction of the arrow shows you which the direction the wind is blowing in. You can see we have very light winds for the whole day. Does this mean the entire day is going to be glassy and perfect? Not necessarily. Let’s take a look by hovering out mouse on the arrows. You can see that at 12pm the wind is 5kts out of the NNW. This is almost perfect for Folly Beach surfing. The wind is coming from off the coast which will create groomed and cleaned conditions and whats even better, it is very light. If that offshore wind were to clock in around 20kts you would run into the problem of difficult entries into waves for beginners due to the wind blowing surfers out of the waves and it would also beat down the swell quickly and it would be a short-lived event. With the wind being light offshore, the swell is not in jeopardy of dying out rapidly. If you scroll your mouse from 6am to 6pm, you will see the wind is light offshore and then suddenly at 3pm the arrow pointing off the beach clocks all the way around and points towards the beach. What does that mean? Well, this means the wind that held offshore consistently for the majority of the day is going to swing around and turn onshore. This will create more texture in the ocean and will decrease the quality. Now that we know this, it’s clear we need to target before 3pm. 6am to 3pm is a lot of time, do I just randomly pick a time to go down to the beach? No, our last ingredient to this swell will be the key to picking your few hour window to surf if you aren’t able to be at the beach all day.

Let’s talk tide. The tides are so crucial to surfing in Charleston. Jump the gun and surf dead low and you will find the swell seems way smaller than expected and it is mostly closet outs. The lack of water will pull energy away from the swell and will also mean the waves will be breaking poorly in very shallow water. Surf the dead high tide (especially around a full moon) and you may be greeted with very soft and crumbly conditions that are barely rideable. While this is the general idea with the tides on Folly Beach, there are definitely certain portions of the beach and certain swells that can work on dead low or dead high, but that is up to you figure out. Walk or bike the beach as much as you can and try to find certain areas that seem to be better or work better on certain tides. For the sake of this though, we will generalize Folly Beach as a mid to high tide beach break. This means we want to catch an incoming tide from around the 2-3 hour mark to the 4-5 hour mark. As you can see from the tide chart below. Dead low tide is 10:14am. This means that from around 12:30pm to 3:30pm would be ideal tide wise, but if the forecast were to hold 100% accurate you would run into a wind shift around the 3pm mark, which wouldn’t be the end of the world but conditions would certainly deteriorate. The other option would be to surf first light (6:43am) to maybe around 9am. While this would be a dropping tide and not the rising tide we would ideally want, the benefit of doing the early morning would be the safety of catching the cleanest portion of the day with a good level of water on the sand bars. There is always the potential the wind comes up much earlier than 3pm and you kick yourself for missing the perfect thigh high glassy waves of the morning.

Lastly, Surfline provides a nice little display with the weather forecast for the day as well as first and last light and sunrise and sundown. This just helps you plan your surf even better.

In summary, when reading the forecast, you are looking to see what are three main ingredients are doing. Swell, wind, and tide. Our job is to look at the information Surfline provides to see when the swell, wind, and tide all come together to create the optimum window to surf each day. Really good conditions rarely last long and you will often find you miss the best window, but the more you read into each swell and do your best to pick out the best three hour windows the better you will get and one day you will find yourself getting the best window of the swell. Understanding a Surfline forecast is applicable to any region and beach in the world, but be sure to understand the specific tides and likings of the beach you want to surf. Every beach likes different swell direction, wind direction, tides, periods, ect. Good luck and let us know if you found this helpful and would like more guides to understanding surf forecasting. Cheers!

Peter Melhado

Comment

Intro to understanding a surf forecast — Isla Surf School (2024)

FAQs

How to read the surf forecast? ›

How to read a surf report
  1. Swell size. The size of the wave, or swell height, is a measure in feet or meters. ...
  2. Swell period. The swell period is measured in seconds. ...
  3. Swell direction. Swell direction tells you where the swell is coming from in degrees/bearing. ...
  4. Wind direction. ...
  5. Wind strength/speed. ...
  6. Tide.
May 24, 2021

What is the best tide for beginners to surf? ›

The best tides to surf in can vary depending on the location, but in general, mid to high tides are ideal for beginners as they provide more forgiving waves. However, experienced surfers may prefer lower tides as they produce faster and more challenging waves.

What is the best wave height for a beginner surfer? ›

Small Waves – 1-3 feet is the best range. Smaller waves this size are gentle, but still powerful enough to push you into shore. Bigger waves can be overwhelming and unsafe for beginners. Lifeguards – It's always best to go to a beach with on-duty lifeguards when you are learning how to surf.

What are the best conditions for surfing? ›

Offshore winds are ideal for surfing because the groom the waves surface and can result in a barreling wave. Ideal conditions for surfing would include absolutely no wind. This is called glassy conditions, and a surfers dream scenario. However if you do have a little wind, it's not the end of your surfing world.

Is 1.5 m swell big? ›

Likewise, the swell is classed as low when it is less than 2.0 metres in height, moderate when it is between 2.0 and 4.0 metres in height, and heavy when it is more than 4.0 metres. Swell may even be moving in a different direction to the prevailing wind.

What is the best surf predictor? ›

The Top 5 Surf Forecast Websites
  • Surfline.
  • WindGuru.
  • Windfinder.
  • Surf-forecast.
  • MagicSeaweed.

Is it better to surf at low tide or high tide? ›

Most surfers agree that high tide provides the best surf. However low tide might be the best time to surf if you're a beginner surfer or have never surfed before.

Can you surf 2-3ft waves? ›

Generally speaking the perfect size for beginners is 1 to 2ft. For intermediates: 2-4ft waves are best as it gives you more face of the wave to progress your skills on. You should keep an eye on the 'Swell Period', because it's a lot more indicative of the actual wave size (see the next point).

Is it better to surf on a rising tide? ›

Every break has its favoured tides and most spots favour a “low going high” tide on the rise. This is the “tidal push” that helps the forward momentum of the waves. The tide pushes in as the waves come in, creating a surge. Some surfers believe the outgoing tide can slightly counter the incoming momentum of the waves.

How many fins should a beginner surfer have? ›

2 + 1 Fins

The 2+1 is a very common fin set up, found on an array of boards including eggs, funboards, mini mal surfboards and longboards. The two side bites help to stabilise the board giving you more control, making this set up better for beginner and intermediate surfers.

What is the average height of a surfer? ›

The history of professional competitive surfing is not statistically clear on whether shorter or taller surfers prevail and win world titles. According to data, the average-height athlete around 5'7''-5'9" (1.70-1.75 meters) is more successful. So, how do the body measurement variables get into play when we surf?

What wave height is considered big? ›

The average wave height of the highest 10% of all waves will be 22 ft. (7 m). A 5% chance of encountering a single wave higher than 35 ft. (11 m) among every 200 waves that pass in about 30 minutes.

What not to do while surfing? ›

Top 10 Beginner Mistakes in Surfing and How to Avoid Them
  1. Grabbing the surfboards rails during a pop up. ...
  2. Looking down at your feet while on a wave. ...
  3. Applying too much pressure to the tail with your back foot. ...
  4. Riding too small of a surfboard. ...
  5. Not bending your knees! ...
  6. Not wearing sunscreen. ...
  7. Getting in over your head.
Jun 5, 2023

What is the best tide for a beginner surfer? ›

The waves that form at high tide are usually great for beginners. Perfect for reef breaks. If you're surfing where the waves break far out on a coral formation, you need enough water to cover the reef. High tide may be the only safe time to surf at these reef breaks.

When should you not surf? ›

Stormy weather, lightning, and strong winds can pose serious risks. If there's a storm approaching, it's best to stay out of the water. Lack of Safety Equipment: Always use the appropriate safety equipment, including a leash to keep your board close and a surfboard with fins in good condition.

Navigating the Waves: A Beginner's Guide to ...San Diego Surf Schoolhttps://www.sandiegosurfingschool.com ›

Wave Height: The most fundamental aspect of any surf report is the wave height. · Tide: Tide plays a crucial role in shaping the quality of waves. &middo...
By following these essential tips, beginner surfers can start their surfing journey with confidence and safety. Remember to choose the right beach, use a suitab...
Become a surfer at any age. We've got all you need to start surfing. Follow our roadmap to happiness with tips, resources, and a comprehensive checklist for...

How does a surf forecast work? ›

Swell data

There are three main factors used in surf forecasting: Swell height is the height of the swell in deep water. Swell direction is the direction from which the swell is coming. It is measured in degrees (as on a compass), and often referred to in general directions, such as a NNW or SW swell.

How do you read waves for surfing? ›

As a wave approaches pay attention to the angle of the wave from the highest point down to the water level. Look for which side of the peak has the steepest angle down or sloping to the flat water. The side of the peak with the steepest angle down to the flat water is the direction that the wave will break.

What do the numbers mean in surfing? ›

The big number is the steady wind speed and the small number is the gust wind speed. Image 15. Out of these two numbers, pay more attention to is the gust wind speed. High gust wind speeds can make a swell slightly more unpredictable when waves are breaking and they also make it harder to stand up.

What do the seconds mean in surf reports? ›

Wave period is measured in seconds and is the gap between one wave and the next. Simply said the wave period is the amount in seconds that pass between each wave. The higher the wave period, the more energy in the swell and so the larger the wave and more often than not this results in better quality waves for surfing.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: The Hon. Margery Christiansen

Last Updated:

Views: 5325

Rating: 5 / 5 (50 voted)

Reviews: 81% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: The Hon. Margery Christiansen

Birthday: 2000-07-07

Address: 5050 Breitenberg Knoll, New Robert, MI 45409

Phone: +2556892639372

Job: Investor Mining Engineer

Hobby: Sketching, Cosplaying, Glassblowing, Genealogy, Crocheting, Archery, Skateboarding

Introduction: My name is The Hon. Margery Christiansen, I am a bright, adorable, precious, inexpensive, gorgeous, comfortable, happy person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.